Famine Theory

I figured I would update you on my famine theory. Things are looking a little better. There was actually some rain as soon as I wrote my last blog about the lack of rain. It is too late for the corn (all of which has been harvested), but there is still a chance that the millet crops could improve with a little bit of rain.

When I was bumming around village lately I asked neighbors about their crops and how their yields are looking. It is hard to fish through the "life is hard in Africa" and the "It'll be ok" mentalities (AKA "C'est L'Afrique" et "Ca va aller" ). Yes, life is hard in Africa and yes, I am sure things will be ok but neither of those responses give me a very clear idea of how hard or ok things are going to be.

What I have gathered so far is that some families are fine. They have grains from the year before that are still well preserved and maybe even beans. Other families that are less adept at conservation are likely to have issues later on this year. On the other hand I found out that bean prices are 800 CFA per yarba when just a year ago they were 300 CFA (500 CFA = 1 US Dollar and a yarba is a unit of measurement about the size of a fruit bowl). This is the time of year that bean prices are their lowest, so if they are starting at the peak price of last year then you know that something is up. I was talking to my closest neighbor and he was saying that he isn't so confident in market prices. Maybe the spike is just based off of perception? We aren't talking about a union of bean growers; we are talking about little cute raisin-like grandmas that are just selling a few beans to get by.

It seems that north of me is going to be a serious issue. Rumor has it that it has only rained once in Niger, but I am not sure if that is accurate since it is coming from worried village dwellers. Exaggeration and indirect ways of phrasing certain concepts are a fairly cultural phenomenon ("2 days" can mean many or "tomorrow" can mean anytime in the future before you die).

Ok, so I am looking at the famine watch web site and the summary for Burkina is "The end to an uncertain season," but I am not entirely certain what that means. It still says that poor families in the northern regions will be having problems. There also is not a long term forecast. I guess I will just have to wait and see what the millet harvest looks like.

If you want to see more about famine in Africa and the rest of the world check out the following link:

http://www.fews.net/Pages/default.aspx